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African Energy Week 2024 presents the vision of a diversified energy future

AFRICAN ENERGY WEEK: OIL & GAS DEMAND EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG THROUGH 2050

Global demand for oil and gas is expected to remain strong in the coming decades, according to Haitham al-Ghais, Secretary-General of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). Speaking at the  Africa Energy Week (AEW) in Cape Town,  South Africa, on 6 November, Haitham al-Ghais explained that this increase in energy demand would be driven by global population growth and a doubling of global GDP by 2050. “OPEC sees the outlook for global oil and gas consumption as very positive. By 2050, energy demand will increase by 24%,” he said.

The world population, currently 8 billion, is expected to reach 9.7 billion by 2050, with a significant share of this growth concentrated in developing countries, particularly in Africa. Al-Ghais stressed that this population increase and the economic growth of emerging megacities and cities of several million inhabitants would amplify the demand for energy, requiring the mobilization of all available resources, including fossil fuels.

The leading role of oil and gas

According to OPEC projections, oil and natural gas will still account for 55% of global energy supply in 2050, with oil alone accounting for 30% of this share. “The world will need all kinds of energy resources in the coming decades,” the OPEC Secretary General said, adding that renewables, although growing, will not be enough to meet this increased demand. In order to meet the growing needs and stabilize markets, OPEC estimates that massive investments will be needed in the oil sector. “Until 2050, the oil sector will require investments of $17.4 trillion,” al-Ghais said, adding that this funding will be mainly directed towards production programs to ensure stable supplies and prevent sudden fluctuations in fuel prices.

A strategic event for the sector

The African Energy Week, which brings together over 1,000 participants, including officials from 22 African countries, industrialists, business people and analysts, continues until November 8. The event provides a platform to discuss energy challenges in Africa and how the continent can meet the growing global energy needs.

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LAGOS, Sept 2 –  Nigeria’s Dangote Oil Refinery has commenced gasoline processing after recent crude shortages caused delays, according to a company executive on Monday. The $20 billion facility, built by Nigerian billionaire Aliko Dangote on the outskirts of Lagos, started operations in January, initially producing products like naphtha and jet fuel.

With a massive capacity of 650,000 barrels per day, the Dangote Refinery is Africa’s largest and aims to reduce Nigeria’s heavy dependence on imported oil products, a costly burden for the country despite being a major oil producer.

“We are currently testing gasoline, and soon it will begin flowing into our product tanks,” said Devakumar Edwin, Vice President of Dangote Industries Limited. Edwin did not specify when
 the gasoline would reach the local market but confirmed that state oil firm NNPC Ltd, Nigeria’s sole gasoline importer, would exclusively purchase the gasoline. “If there are no buyers locally, we will export it, as we have done with our jet fuel and diesel,” he added.

The introduction of gasoline from Dangote’s refinery could significantly ease NNPC’s ongoing struggles to meet local fuel demand. Since January, NNPC has accumulated $6 billion in debt to oil traders for supply, hampering its ability to adequately serve the Nigerian market, where long fuel queues have persisted since July. Fuel prices have surged by 45% from the official rate of 617 naira ($0.3942) following the removal of subsidies last year.

“The timing of Dangote’s gasoline production is critical, especially given NNPC’s current challenges in securing imported supply due to financial constraints,” noted Clementine Wallop, Director for Sub-Saharan Africa at Horizon Engage, a political risk consultancy. She emphasized the need for NNPC to demonstrate transparency in its financial dealings as it begins to purchase from Dangote.

Despite being Africa’s leading oil producer, Nigeria imports almost all of its fuel due to years of neglect and underinvestment in its national refineries.

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