Dutch TTF Gas March 25 (TGH25) Price Chart (€/MWh)
Yara's Hull Plant Mothballing Highlights Europe's Ongoing Energy Challenges
The recent announcement (on 7 February 2025) of Yara International's decision to mothball its Hull ammonia plant in the UK, which has an annual capacity of 300,000 metric tons represents a striking example of how Europe's energy crisis continues to impact industrial production.
This decision is part of a broader strategy to reduce European ammonia production by 1 million metric tons due to high natural gas feedstock costs and the impact of European carbon policies.
The Hull plant closure, likely permanent, reflects the challenges faced by energy-intensive industries in Europe, where elevated energy prices and regulatory pressures have significantly eroded competitiveness.
The Natural Gas-Fertilizer Connection
Fertilizer production, particularly nitrogen-based fertilizers, is
inextricably linked to natural gas prices. Natural gas serves not only as an energy source but also as a key raw material in the production process. Through the Haber-Bosch process, natural gas (methane) is converted into hydrogen, which then combines with nitrogen from the air to produce ammonia – the building block of nitrogen fertilizers.
When natural gas prices surge, fertilizer production costs increase dramatically, as gas can represent up to 80% of the production costs for nitrogen fertilizers. This direct relationship makes fertilizer plants particularly vulnerable to gas price volatility.
The Chain of Events: Europe's Energy Market Transformation
The current situation stems from a series of significant changes in Europe's energy landscape:
Europe took the decisive step of sanctioning gas imports from Russia altogether, forcing a dramatic restructuring of its energy supply chains. This led to a rushed transition toward liquefied natural gas (LNG) from distant suppliers like the United States and Qatar. However, LNG proves significantly more expensive than pipeline gas due to the complex processes of liquefaction, oceanic transport, storage and regasification.
Germany's decision to accelerate the dismantling of its nuclear power plants set an early precedent for increased gas dependency in Europe's largest economy. This shift put additional pressure on the continent's gas supplies and grid stability.
The situation intensified when the Baltic states decided to cut
themselves off from the Russian power grid on 9 February 2025, leading to significant spikes in regional electricity prices. This was preceded by Ukraine's decision to halt gas transit through its territory on 1 January 2025, which had been a crucial pipeline route for Russian gas reaching European markets.
New U.K. Tax Rates Are Hammering North Sea Oil And Gas Drilling
In the UK, the situation intensified in October when the UK government raised the Energy Profits Levy (EPL), commonly known as the windfall tax, from 35% to 38%. The United Kingdom currently imposes one of the world's highest tax burdens on offshore oil and gas production, with operators in the North Sea facing a total tax rate of 78% resulting from the combination of standard taxation and the EPL.
The policy has created a challenging environment for the UK's domestic energy production, Britain now paying the highest electricity prices in the World.
Norway's Gas Threat: A New Risk to Europe's Energy Security
Norway, a critical supplier of natural gas to Europe, has recently hinted at potential disruptions to its energy exports due to domestic and geopolitical pressures. Currently providing nearly half of Germany's gas supply, Norway has become indispensable for European energy security following the decline of Russian gas imports.
However, soaring electricity prices in Norway—six times the EU average—have sparked domestic backlash, with political parties advocating for reduced energy exports to prioritize national affordability. Additionally, technical failures, such as the January 2025 shutdown of Norway's Hammerfest LNG plant, have already tightened Europe's strained energy supply.
These developments highlight Europe’s vulnerability to disruptions in Norwegian gas flows, further exacerbating its ongoing energy crisis.
European Decarbonization Policies
Both the EU and the UK are undergoing significant transformations in their energy landscapes as part of ambitious decarbonization policies aimed at achieving net zero emissions by 2050. The EU’s European Green Deal and legally binding Climate Law, alongside the UK’s Clean Power 2030 Action Plan and Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS), have driven renewable energy adoption and reduced reliance on fossil fuels.
The measures have significantly impacted energy prices across Europe. Investments in green technologies, carbon pricing, and restrictions on fossil fuel use have increased costs for industries and households alike.
In the UK, phasing out coal power and limiting new oil and gas licenses have heightened dependency on renewables and imported energy, raising concerns about energy security.
Deindustrialization in Europe: The Impact of Surging Energy and Gas Prices
These rising costs are placing heavy financial pressure on energy-intensive industries across Europe and the UK, accelerating trends of deindustrialization, exacerbated by geopolitical tensions, net zero energy policy decisions, and the reduction of Russian gas supplies.
Energy-intensive industries, such as chemicals, steel, and aluminum, have been particularly affected, with many companies curbing production or relocating to regions with lower energy costs like the U.S. or Asia. Yara's decision to close its Hull ammonia plant is only the latest in a long list of industrial failures across Europe.
#naturalgas #deindustrialization #europe #fertilizer #ammonia #lng #ttf
Kokel, Nicolas
