Vitol's ATB Terminal in Malaysia.

In a recent report, Vitol, the world's largest independent oil trader, has projected that global oil demand will remain at current levels until at least 2040. This forecast challenges earlier predictions of a peak in oil demand followed by a sharp decline due to the rise of electric vehicles and renewable energy sources.

Vitol's analysis suggests that while demand for oil in developed nations may decrease, this will be offset by rising demand in developing economies. The company cites population growth, economic expansion, and urbanization as key factors driving this continued demand.

The report also highlights the role of the petrochemicals industry, which is expected to see increased oil demand for the production of plastics and other materials. This growth, coupled with demand from developing nations, is anticipated to keep global oil consumption steady.

While acknowledging the global push for cleaner energy, Vitol's forecast indicates that oil will continue to play a significant role in the global energy mix for the foreseeable future. The company's analysis underscores the complex challenges of balancing economic development with the transition to a more sustainable energy future.

China: Vitol's global head of research, Giovanni Serio, has highlighted that China will continue to play a critical role in global oil demand, particularly in the petrochemical sector. Despite the rise of electric vehicles and the energy transition, China's focus on petrochemicals is expected to drive oil demand.

Long-Term Forecast: Vitol has pushed back its peak oil demand forecast globally to the 2030s, citing a slower uptake of electric vehicles and lower commitments to environmental targets. The company also anticipates that jet fuel and petrochemical feedstocks will drive global oil demand growth in the next five years.

These insights reflect Vitol's evolving views on the future of oil demand, emphasizing the role of emerging markets and the ongoing energy transition.

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